Chapter Text
"It seems that I only accept drastic changes, from falling down to becoming three-eyed, and of course, to be the king," said Bran in his forties.
"Well, I made some changes when I was young, most of them were unsatisfying, I suppose," replied Tyrion. He was not sure whether he actually saw Bran chuckle lightly or not. People said that the King had no emotions, which he definitely knew was a myth.
The Six Kingdoms were based on stories and myths, a vulnerable and fragile alliance, yet they existed and kept the peace for more than twenty years —most of the time, in most places, to be honest. This could be regarded as a miracle, Tyrion thought, or a kind of commencement, to some extent. The first ten years were hard, but not so hard. Winter fell on Westeros as usual; luckily, it only lasted for two years and was much milder than previously assumed. Two years of consuming food only without production constituted problems certainly, fortunately---the word should not be said, fewer people needed to be fed after years of wars and destruction; therefore, no severe famines occurred in major cities and towns. After the end of winter, crops were planted and harvested, houses were mended and built, children grew, and more babies were born. Fewer lords and landlords let peasants have more land to cultivate on average, some of them even began to have the ownership of wastelands after continuous reclamation of several years---a suggestion made by Ser Bronn roughly, and was revised into a practicable edition afterward by Tyrion.
Before the start of the second winter, the Iron Bank finally agreed to lend money to the Six Kingdoms, on the condition that Tycho Nestoris would be the Master of Coin. This appointment aroused much more fierce quarrels than usual, but finally, most of the Houses reluctantly agreed that if new debts could not be paid as before, whether it was due to unpredictable war or disasters, or simply ignorance from the Queen or King, it was natural that no organization would be willing to lend loans to them anymore. As part of the bargain, Tycho Nestoris was entitled to address inquiries about expenditures, but had no power to establish tax policies. The previous debts incurred by Stannis were partially exempted, and the amount was delicate enough to be considered a remarkable concession or a bearable loss, depending on one's perspective, especially when combined with a visible plan of repayment and Tycho's appointment.
Although more than ten years have passed after the series of bargains with Tycho Nestoris, Tyrion still remembered partial contents of them. He was a bit surprised to find out that he still remembered them since the bargains were much politer than quite a few disputes with Houses and the following quarrels afterward. "Perhaps it is because we seldom discuss finance so objectively and transparently," thought Tyrion, "And maybe after those bargains, gradual, visible and continuous changes happened."
"The debts belong to the Iron Throne---even though it was melted, and whoever rules the Six Kingdoms must pay them."
"When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones," Tyrion said peacefully. "A powerful and pragmatic threat." He took a drink of Arbor gold, "Wrong word, my apologies. Of course, it is more than a threat. Similar things we know or don't know occurred somewhere, probably still exist, and will continue to exist in the future. But this is not my point." Tyrion raised his cup and drank again. "I think you do not care much about how kings pay their due. Indeed, why do bankers care about how debtors manage to pay their debts? So long as debts are paid punctually, everything will be fine.“ He finished his Arbor gold and set the cup aside. "But I believe you also realize, or even acknowledge, though you could not say it publicly, the previous game is over."
"I could not say our previous service could be called 'game', my lord. But your remarks are interesting." Tycho Nestoris said calmly.
" 'We invest in endeavors we deem likely to be successful.' In most cases, you are always successful, with your power and reputation; few kings, queens, or lords are reckless to dishonor their dues. If a prince or king cannot pay you back, the new ones who receive your investment will surely pay you back; otherwise, they will share the fate of their predecessors. And how do new princes or kings raise sufficient money? By raising taxes, of course, if someone is unable to pay their taxes, they should forfeit all their properties. Previously, Lord Baelish managed the king's gold excellently by purchasing and selling at good times, imposing taxes on some entertainments, and borrowing money from other lenders if needed. "
Tyrion noticed that Tycho was focused and polite, without any words to interrupt. He thought it might be a good start. "However, all of those are based on a simple fact, that people have money or wealth to pay taxes, regardless of their willings." The squire came in and added wine to their cups. Tyrion postponed for a short while, then continued, " I'm sure you have noticed that quite a few landlords agree to lower their rents, very reluctantly to be sure, but they agree.“
Tyrion put away the cup, "honestly, at first I did not care much about landlords' 'kindness' until Ser Bronn complained that he had to agree his tenants lower their rents, otherwise he had to see over half of his farmlands abandoned since the tenants would rather move away than farm and pay taxes."
He stood up from the chair and stood in front of the window. "Did you remember or know the price of bread and meat when you came to King's Landing last time? " Tyrion asked. "I paid attention to the prices at that time, my lord. But I could not say I still remember those numbers correctly,” replied Tycho.
"Really? I used to believe bankers always remember numbers accurately." Tyrion roamed around the long table, "Compared with prices during Queen Cersei's time, the current prices are only two-thirds of them; If you compare them with those during King Robert's time. right now, the prices are four-fifths of them." He paused again and sighed, "Indeed, why shall I tell you something that you have already known? Nevertheless, if it is the first step of negotiation, I won't mind the trouble."
"Perhaps I could also make some compliments, my lord, " Tycho broke his silence, "Throughout Westeros and Essos, wealthy people and families tend to purchase fewer luxuries. Most of us lead harder lives than before, but good reasons cannot substitute the debts ..."
"Then, do you mind hearing some interesting information that I've heard of? It's said that there are a number of depositors who are concerned about their properties in the Iron Bank, and also, there are several shareholders of the bank who seem to have less confidence in their investment than before."
Tycho frowned as he replied, "I could not say your information resource is reliable, and as far as I know, our Iron Bank is still in good operation."
"In good operation, definitely, I have no doubts that your capability to provide persuasive and detailed statistics to support your comments. But my lord, I wonder whether you know the power of rumours. I assume your investments are based on the collection of comprehensive information and rational analysis, at least most of them are. Otherwise, I cannot believe why the Iron Bank has existed and thrived for countless years. I suppose you also know the influence of irrationality, which might be manifested by people who purchase something due to impulse or owe a lot of money without considering their ability to pay debts.
"However, do you know the power of a large number of people's irrationality? If an adequate number of people hear rumours, generate concerns, and choose to withdraw their savings at almost the same time, how could you tackle this issue?"
Tycho did not appear to be much worried, "If your information is truly comprehensive, you will know that we have several experiences of handling those similar situations. Not so many, actually, since if the Iron Bank had rich experience in those, certainly we could not have existed for such a long time."
"Please take my words as a reminder, if you are willing to," Tyrion pointed his head slightly, "When you are the most powerful bank in Westeros, surely you do not need to bother with those things. So long as depositors and investors have confidence in you, such things are scarce in your history. I admire your excellent reputation and the long-standing tradition; nevertheless, several previous experiences of those are very much likely to be unable to satisfactorily cope with the current circumstance."
"Forgive me, my lord, thanks for your reminder, but I have a question," Tycho gently responded, "Since all of our current reports and statistics show satisfying performance, both from investors' and bankers' perspectives, how could you derive such an idea? Would you please kindly satisfy my curiosity?"
"Because I believe that I have seen much more irrationality than you. Bankers cannot be irrational; they need to be as rational as they can be, and also be accurate, of course. But people's behaviours are not always rational. To be honest, I'd rather say they are more likely to become emotional and make decisions they will regret in the future. Can you imagine when two-thirds of your clients hear some rumours about your operations, and half of them choose to withdraw their savings in case anything unexpected happens, what would happen to your bank?"
"I don't think this will happen. We could do so many things to alleviate their concerns. After all, the Iron Bank is in Braavos, not in Westeros."
"In case my words arouse any ambiguities, I would like to clarify that I don't have any doubts about the location or ownership of the Iron Bank, just feel assured in this case, Lord Tycho. Therefore, your remarks also imply that it is you who shall bear the risks, not us."
"Is it a threat, my lord?" Calmly asked Tycho Nestoris, after he drank over his first cup of wine during his talk.
"Just as I have said before, I prefer to regard it as a reminder, my lord. We have no interest in seeing the Iron Bank in trouble. If you are in trouble, it will be a catastrophe for us." Tyrion looked at the banker's eyes; what he said afterward would be significant to both Westeros and the Iron Bank, especially when future historians feel interested in the first bank in Westeros.
"I'd like to give you an offer, an offer that includes a reasonable debt repayment plan, expansion of the Iron Bank's power, and a prominent career advancement for you. " Tyrion said confidently, at least seemingly confidently. He discussed his plan with King Bran before, who confirmed that no similar offers had been made before by any Kings or Queens in Westeros, while also receiving the support he needed. Though he still could not imagine Tycho's possible response and afterwards quarrels with the Houses if Tycho agreed, at least presently, he could appear as confident as necessary.
"We'll pay the debts, according to a seeable plan of payment. Shortly, we could discuss this plan."
" I believe surely this will include some conditions, right?"
"Some amount of debt exemption, I have to admit." Replied Tyrion. He did not wait for Tycho's responses on that, continued, "The plan of payments is only part of this offer. Other parts of this offer include establishing the first branch of the Iron Bank in Westeros."
Tycho went silent for a few seconds, then crossed his fingers and calmly said, "My lord, I have to admit that you manage to surprise me. If my memory serves me well, actually, many years ago, long before I started to work for the Iron Bank, we proposed to establish a branch in Westeros, sorry I could not remember the exact name of the King to whom it was proposed, and it was refuted, not surprisingly."
Tyrion did not respond directly, "And after thorough discussions with King Bran, both of us agreed that the Master of Coin needed to be a genuine professional, whom I think we have found the ideal candidate already."
"Oh, really? Then I'd like to offer my personal congratulations on it." Replied Tycho.
“Personal congratulations, indeed. But let's talk about the first branch in Westeros first, though I assume there is no need to bother much about the advantages of this proposal."